In August it slipped below 9 percent.

Looking at the number of manufacturing jobs reveals a different picture. The total number of manufacturing jobs actually peaked in July 1979, at 19.6 million. For many decades, from 1965 to 2000, it never fell below 16 million. It had its ups and downs throughout those 35 years, but it seemed always to bounce back. After the recession of 2001, it didn't bounce back; the U.S. lost about 3 million manufacturing jobs in short order, and those jobs didn't come back when the recession ended.

Then again, the U.S. still has a tremendous output; by some estimates, the U.S. provides more than 20 percent of the world's output of manufactured goods. This is from a country with 4.5 percent of the world's population. And judging by the results of the forming and fabricating industry's biggest annual tradeshow, FABTECH® International & AWS Welding Show, including METALFORM, many in this industry are confident that 2010 is going to be a good year for manufacturing.

Although the attendance was lower than it was the last time FABTECH was in Chicago (2007), one editor that I know had a little trouble getting to every appointment because the aisles were crowded with attendees. Also, the expo organizers were extremely pleased to report that the number of exhibitors increased since the 2007 expo (1,043 exhibitors in 2009 versus 1,007 in 2007), and one exhibitor reported selling more than 20 machines. Not bad for four days of exhibiting. Looking forward, 75 percent of the show floor space for the 2010 expo (in Atlanta, Nov. 2-4) has been sold.

Back to the manufacturing employment situation. Manufacturing jobs are hard to find now, but in time we'll be back to worrying about the skills shortage in this country. Do we have evidence that people want manufacturing careers? Glad you asked and yes, we do. The Fabricators & Manufacturers Association International® (FMA), one of the co-organizers, hosted dozens of educational conferences and forecast 320 conference attendees; it netted 327. More than 10 percent of those, 45 in all, were people who signed up on the spot.

Separately, FMA commissioned a nationwide study and found that 56 percent of adults with kids would recommend their children pursue a manufacturing or technical career. Furthermore, the conference organizers invited students from Chicago-area high schools to attend, and more than 300 turned out.

Of course, we don't have to reach 300 people at a time. Even small, one-on-one interactions can reap benefits. When leaving the expo one evening, I struck up a conversation with the cab driver, mainly because he wanted to know when to return to the expo the following day to pick up some fares. We got to talking about manufacturing and careers, and he said, "What about someone like me, who knows nothing about it?" I gave him my business card. He's already made it over a huge hurdle, getting out of Somalia (no kidding), so getting through a vocational program should be a piece of cake.

What can you do? I recommend shooting a little bit of video of something that will dazzle teenagers, including an explanation of the process and the results, and posting it at www.youtube.com. By showing that these jobs aren't dirty and dangerous, I am confident that we can win people over and reduce the skills gap, one student (or one Somali cab driver) at a time.

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Economically speaking, it's been a grim year. Few industries have escaped the repercussions of the downturn, and ours—metal manufacturing—is among the hardest hit. It was under a heavy cloud of concern that a stressed, worried industry came together at the 2009 FABTECH® International & AWS Welding Show, including METALFORM earlier this week. Exhibitors wondered if attendees would come.

Would companies that are making drastic cutbacks spring for the cost of sending people to the show? Would those who came buy?

They came, they saw, and they bought. (TRUMPF sold four machines the first day.) FABTECH 2009 exceeded exhibitors'—and editors'—expectations.

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The coverage on health care reform has been driving me crazy lately. As the saying goes, there are two things that are good to have, but you don't want to know how they're made: laws and sausages. For weeks, article after newspaper article has described the art of sausage-making.

But one report in recent days didn’t cover so much sausage-making. In The New York Times Magazine, David Lenhardt wrote an in-depth expose, not on which lobbying group cut this or that deal with that lawmaker, but on practices that actually might improve the health system. Not surprisingly, the ideas aren't part of any of the health care bills floating around the Capitol. Many special interests are blocking any big changes to the system—again, sausage-making I don’t like reading about.

Instead of lingering outside congressional offices, Lenhardt went to Intermountain Medical Center. For years doctors at the Salt Lake City hospital did something novel for the health care profession. Starting with a trial for treating acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), doctors have written detailed protocols on how to carry out treatment.

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Unfortunately, the past decade hasn't been a stellar one for job creation. If you take a look at the private jobs in the U.S. in September 2009, a little over 109.1 million, and compare that to the number in September 1999, about 109.7 million, you are left with an empty feeling. If you consider that the overall population grew 9 percent during that same time, you have an even emptier feeling.

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Yes, Tim, it truly is about jobs. Congress can debate health care reform, bail out banks, extend unemployment benefits, work to develop a climate bill, increase the legislative budget, and do whatever else it does until the cows come home, but we need jobs—lots of good jobs—for the economy to improve.

Jobs and a healthy economy are analogous to the chicken and the egg. You can't have one without the other. And without jobs and a healthy economy, the U.S. can't afford the flood of money Congress is spending these days. The current situation is a mindboggling conundrum—a mess. I don't have the answers, but I believe employers and employees can work together to mitigate job loss—just as the companies mentioned in my colleague's blog post did. Fabricating Update readers think so too.

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It's now one in 10, probably more. Take a walk and glance around. You'll probably see someone in need of a job. Within two blocks of my house, I know four who are unemployed—and those are just the neighbors I know.

The Labor Department's release, which pegged October's unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, caught many off guard Friday. Most thought the rate would reach that point someday, but not so soon. During the past year, durable goods manufacturing unemployment more than doubled, from 5.9 percent to 12.9, the highest rate of any sector the labor department tracks.

Break it down a bit more and the picture doesn't look quite as dire. In September 2008 the fabricated metal products sector employed 1.280 million; in October 2009 it was 1.275. And get this: Employment related to motor vehicles and parts actually increased by more than 4 percent. Could the sector finally be bouncing back?

I know I'm hunting for diamonds in the rough here. Heck, I'd be pleased with cubic zirconium at this point.

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I was attending a meeting where the subject was improving communication between our ad sales team and our magazine production team. Incomplete and incorrect information was coming from the sales team, and the production team was not being prompt in responding to simple questions, which would delay the sales team's prompt replies to clients' requests. To be honest, personnel changes within our own organization have exacerbated this situation, but we are working through it as best as we can.

Well, the moment of clarity hit me when we began talking about the forms the sales team uses. Each sales person had his or her own version of them. We're talking about five different sales people each with a unique version of an insertion order, which is the permission slip to run an ad, and an ad change form to designate typographical and style changes to existing ads. Our production manager had to search through these many different forms to find the most basic information. Needless to say, she doesn't look at the whole process as an efficient one.

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It's no secret that it included a provision to cut a home-buyer's federal tax bill by $8,000. According to www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorizes a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009, and before December 1, 2009."

This might come as a shock, but this legislation has some drawbacks.

How is it intended to work? It's not necessarily about getting people into homes. It's about getting people to crack open their wallets for related expenses. Indirectly propping up home sales is like throwing a rock into a pond; both send ripples out in every direction. Purchasing a home often leads to many expenditures—renting a moving van, buying a new appliance or two, purchasing some new furniture, maybe picking up a few gallons of paint to fix up the new place. That doesn't seem like a bad idea, does it?

Well, on the surface it isn't a bad idea, but the bill itself was written badly. This might come as another shock, but it seems that our 100 senators and 435 representatives didn't think this one through. As pointed out by the editorial staff of The Boston Herald, in a column under the tongue-in-cheek title "'Stimulating' tax fraud," no home purchase documentation is required. Of those who have filed, 19,000 hadn't bought homes yet; 74,000 had owned homes previously; and one was four years old.

It gets better. As noted in The Wall Street Journal article "Home-buyer credit tempts tax cheats," 53 of the illegal or inappropriate claims for the credit came from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) employees. Now that's moxie!

Back to the economics of the situation. Here come the drawbacks. First, it probably boosted home prices by several thousand dollars because buyers suddenly had $8,000 more to work with, and sellers knew it. Second, it is a transfer program, the bane of economics. It doesn't create something of value; it simply moves money around from one group of people to another. Tax-paying homeowners and renters—and businesses such as yours—can do nothing but watch as first-time home buyers benefit from this subsidy. Third, it's too concentrated; it's too much money in too few hands. Sure, they'll spend some of it, but many argue that the spending won't amount to much. It might turn into a few ripples, but it's not likely to create big waves surging through the economy. Last, we really don't know how the money will get spent. A new appliance or two, or some new furniture? Maybe. I'd guess much more will be spent on plasma screen televisions, DVD players, and other fancy electronic gadgets, few of which are made in the U.S.

In short, individuals and businesses likely will pay more in taxes to fund this program but won't get much benefit from them. If you're a manufacturer, it might end up hurting you more than helping you.

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It's been eight years since the 9/11 attacks that destroyed the World Trade Center and killed almost 3,000 innocent prople— enough time for two presidential elections; U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq; the fall of a dictatorship; the battle of New Orleans versus Katrina; the Great Recession; and countless other famous and infamous news-making events. However, none have supplanted the memory of that tragic morning when horrified Americans and our neighbors across the world watched the devastation unfold.

Throughout these eight years, many 9/11 memorials have been suggested. Some have been realized, some scrapped, and some are in development. Perhaps the most fitting to date, the USS New York, steamed into New York harbor Nov. 2 as firefighters, bagpipers, and those who lost loved ones on 9/11 watched. As reported on CNN.com, the new Navy assault ship's bow was fabricated using seven and a half tons of steel recovered from the wreckage of the WTC.

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The status of Cummins perhaps best sums up the manufacturing economy at large. We may be on the rebound, but all of the unemployed aren't heading back to work tomorrow.

Last week the engine maker reported third quarter profits that exceeded expectations. Like so many, they got there by cutting jobs and inventory. According to a Bloomberg report, the company "cut about 7,500 workers, including fill-time and temporary employees, from late 2008 through June, and has since recalled about 900."

About 900? That's good … I guess.

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