Economically speaking, it's been a grim year. Few industries have escaped the repercussions of the downturn, and ours—metal manufacturing—is among the hardest hit. It was under a heavy cloud of concern that a stressed, worried industry came together at the 2009 FABTECH® International & AWS Welding Show, including METALFORM earlier this week. Exhibitors wondered if attendees would come.

Would companies that are making drastic cutbacks spring for the cost of sending people to the show? Would those who came buy?

They came, they saw, and they bought. (TRUMPF sold four machines the first day.) FABTECH 2009 exceeded exhibitors'—and editors'—expectations.

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Yes, Tim, it truly is about jobs. Congress can debate health care reform, bail out banks, extend unemployment benefits, work to develop a climate bill, increase the legislative budget, and do whatever else it does until the cows come home, but we need jobs—lots of good jobs—for the economy to improve.

Jobs and a healthy economy are analogous to the chicken and the egg. You can't have one without the other. And without jobs and a healthy economy, the U.S. can't afford the flood of money Congress is spending these days. The current situation is a mindboggling conundrum—a mess. I don't have the answers, but I believe employers and employees can work together to mitigate job loss—just as the companies mentioned in my colleague's blog post did. Fabricating Update readers think so too.

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It's now one in 10, probably more. Take a walk and glance around. You'll probably see someone in need of a job. Within two blocks of my house, I know four who are unemployed—and those are just the neighbors I know.

The Labor Department's release, which pegged October's unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, caught many off guard Friday. Most thought the rate would reach that point someday, but not so soon. During the past year, durable goods manufacturing unemployment more than doubled, from 5.9 percent to 12.9, the highest rate of any sector the labor department tracks.

Break it down a bit more and the picture doesn't look quite as dire. In September 2008 the fabricated metal products sector employed 1.280 million; in October 2009 it was 1.275. And get this: Employment related to motor vehicles and parts actually increased by more than 4 percent. Could the sector finally be bouncing back?

I know I'm hunting for diamonds in the rough here. Heck, I'd be pleased with cubic zirconium at this point.

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It's no secret that it included a provision to cut a home-buyer's federal tax bill by $8,000. According to www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, "The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 authorizes a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009, and before December 1, 2009."

This might come as a shock, but this legislation has some drawbacks.

How is it intended to work? It's not necessarily about getting people into homes. It's about getting people to crack open their wallets for related expenses. Indirectly propping up home sales is like throwing a rock into a pond; both send ripples out in every direction. Purchasing a home often leads to many expenditures—renting a moving van, buying a new appliance or two, purchasing some new furniture, maybe picking up a few gallons of paint to fix up the new place. That doesn't seem like a bad idea, does it?

Well, on the surface it isn't a bad idea, but the bill itself was written badly. This might come as another shock, but it seems that our 100 senators and 435 representatives didn't think this one through. As pointed out by the editorial staff of The Boston Herald, in a column under the tongue-in-cheek title "'Stimulating' tax fraud," no home purchase documentation is required. Of those who have filed, 19,000 hadn't bought homes yet; 74,000 had owned homes previously; and one was four years old.

It gets better. As noted in The Wall Street Journal article "Home-buyer credit tempts tax cheats," 53 of the illegal or inappropriate claims for the credit came from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) employees. Now that's moxie!

Back to the economics of the situation. Here come the drawbacks. First, it probably boosted home prices by several thousand dollars because buyers suddenly had $8,000 more to work with, and sellers knew it. Second, it is a transfer program, the bane of economics. It doesn't create something of value; it simply moves money around from one group of people to another. Tax-paying homeowners and renters—and businesses such as yours—can do nothing but watch as first-time home buyers benefit from this subsidy. Third, it's too concentrated; it's too much money in too few hands. Sure, they'll spend some of it, but many argue that the spending won't amount to much. It might turn into a few ripples, but it's not likely to create big waves surging through the economy. Last, we really don't know how the money will get spent. A new appliance or two, or some new furniture? Maybe. I'd guess much more will be spent on plasma screen televisions, DVD players, and other fancy electronic gadgets, few of which are made in the U.S.

In short, individuals and businesses likely will pay more in taxes to fund this program but won't get much benefit from them. If you're a manufacturer, it might end up hurting you more than helping you.

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The status of Cummins perhaps best sums up the manufacturing economy at large. We may be on the rebound, but all of the unemployed aren't heading back to work tomorrow.

Last week the engine maker reported third quarter profits that exceeded expectations. Like so many, they got there by cutting jobs and inventory. According to a Bloomberg report, the company "cut about 7,500 workers, including fill-time and temporary employees, from late 2008 through June, and has since recalled about 900."

About 900? That's good … I guess.

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Fox News—most people either love it or hate it. I'm indifferent about it, preferring to look at it as I do most media: Take what I hear with a grain of salt and watch out for bias.

Just yesterday, host Greta Van Susteren chatted with David Cho, financial reporter for the "Washington Post" about how small businesses are doing. Cho authored an article in the "Post" Oct. 22 entitled "Rescue efforts shift to small business." The crux of that effort is getting affordable credit into the hands of small businesses.

Fabricating Update subscribers are in businesses that could benefit most from these efforts, provided they are handled properly and in a timely manner. Some subscribers welcome the focus on small businesses, some clearly think properly and timely are not in the government's lexicon, and some think the government should stay the heck out of business altogether.

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Did you hear? The automotive biz is rockin' and rollin'. General Motors—that's right, the same GM that trudged to bankruptcy court earlier this year—reported 2009 growth of 40 percent. Heck, the industry overall reported 90 percent growth in August. Simply amazing!

Oh, I forgot to mention: You have to move to China to join the party.

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Yesterday evening, I sat in a Jiffy Lube waiting room while my car was undergoing an emissions test—a requirement for tag renewal. A small, very old-school, rabbit-eared TV tuned to a local news station stood in the corner. As I attempted to wile away the time reading the latest but already well-worn issue of People magazine and catch up with the David Letterman situation, a fellow waiting room occupant began to talk to me about what was happening on TV. She laughed and said, "My husband keeps telling me to stop watching the news. It's all bad."

Throughout the years, I've heard this advice from several people, most memorably, an individual who taught courses at Rock Valley College, Rockford, Ill., in the early 90s about the mind-body connection. Myrna (not her real name, but close) said we should never watch the news, or read the newspaper; it isn't healthy.

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Psssst. Hey … down here. I’m the headline about 20 column inches below the story about Balloon Boy. Keep looking down. Down. Just below that expose about Polanski. See me? Good. Don't tell anyone, but manufacturing's getting a bit better. In fact, manufacturing may be the thing that pulls us all out of the economic doldrums; at least that's how some are reacting to the Federal Reserve data released Friday.

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I love online polls, especially those that allow takers to comment. There's a certain feeling of anonymity when you are sitting all alone in front of your computer screen that tends to make many of us more open when voicing our opinions through our keyboards. (Of course that same feeling of privacy also can lead to misuse of Internet resources at work, as IT departments everywhere can attest.)

Yesterday, MSNBC.com's Newsvine featured a poll that asked, When do you plan to retire? As I write this, 50 percent of the 14,652 voters have indicated that they will retire by the age of 65—18 percent at 60 or before, and 32 percent by 65. Almost 22 percent said they planned to retire by the age of 70; 24 percent chose the answer: You’ve got to be kidding. Can people still afford to retire? The remaining four percent chose: Does being unemployed count as being retired?

The March 2009 issue of "Tube Talk" asked subscribers about their retirement plans. A quarter of respondents, like Tom from Tennessee, had retirement well within their sights. Tom said, "Last year the wife and I targeted May 30, 2009 for my retirement; she is already retired four years.

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