- FMA
- The Fabricator
- FABTECH
- Canadian Metalworking
Categories
- Additive Manufacturing
- Aluminum Welding
- Arc Welding
- Assembly and Joining
- Automation and Robotics
- Bending and Forming
- Consumables
- Cutting and Weld Prep
- Electric Vehicles
- En Español
- Finishing
- Hydroforming
- Laser Cutting
- Laser Welding
- Machining
- Manufacturing Software
- Materials Handling
- Metals/Materials
- Oxyfuel Cutting
- Plasma Cutting
- Power Tools
- Punching and Other Holemaking
- Roll Forming
- Safety
- Sawing
- Shearing
- Shop Management
- Testing and Measuring
- Tube and Pipe Fabrication
- Tube and Pipe Production
- Waterjet Cutting
Industry Directory
Webcasts
Podcasts
FAB 40
Advertise
Subscribe
Account Login
Search
Are we there yet?
- By Eric Lundin
- April 2, 2009
The destination in this case is the trough of the business cycle. The bottom of the recession. The bleakest, most dire point.
It's always hard to tell what the economy is doing right now. Various agencies, both public and private, monitor various economic factors continuously; by the time the data is gathered, sifted, worked over by statisticians, correlated, and assembled into some sort of a report, the information is weeks or months old. That said, the economy likely has hit bottom, or is nearly there. Dr. Chris Kuehl, who delivered the keynote address at Metal Matters (FMA's 4th annual leadership summit, held March 25-27), cited several factors that indicate the economy is on the mend.
First and foremost, he cited the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), a rate at which banks lend to each other and therefore a benchmark for lending activity. It is often less than 1 percent, he said. As of early April, the one-month LIBOR rate was 0.50 percent. This is down from 2.70 percent a year ago.
Housing is another area to watch.
"This sector started it; this section will likely end it," he said. A key driver is the number of births, which hit 4.32 million in 2007. This is actually higher than the previous peak at the height of the baby boom, which was 4.31 million in 1957. For many couples, a new baby leads to a mortgage, usually within 36 months, Kuehl said. And, of course, a mortgage leads to a host of large purchases, such as appliances and furniture.
Consumer spending in generalnot just mortgages and big-ticket itemsalso is a solid indicator. According to Kuehl, a consumer statement heard more and more frequently these days starts like this: "Well, I know I can't afford it, but&"
OK, how about some hard data? The PMI has been moving upward for three straight months. In his firm's daily newsletter, Kuehl mentioned that the PMI's new orders index jumped 8 percent in the last month. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau seems to back this up. The April issue of its M3 report states that new orders for manufactured goods increased in February.
Need one more? I have been watching bankruptcy data. I found a source that provides this information at no charge. It's not reported oftenjust quarterlyand the number of business bankruptcies is still climbing, but it's worth watching.
Does this mean we're there yet? Well, not necessarily. When a handful of indicators have been moving in the same direction for several months, we'll have a better handle on it.
For more information from Kuehl on the fabricating industry, subscribe to Fabrinomics".
subscribe now
The Fabricator is North America's leading magazine for the metal forming and fabricating industry. The magazine delivers the news, technical articles, and case histories that enable fabricators to do their jobs more efficiently. The Fabricator has served the industry since 1970.
start your free subscriptionAbout the Author
Eric Lundin
2135 Point Blvd
Elgin, IL 60123
815-227-8262
Eric Lundin worked on The Tube & Pipe Journal from 2000 to 2022.
- Stay connected from anywhere
Easily access valuable industry resources now with full access to the digital edition of The Fabricator.
Easily access valuable industry resources now with full access to the digital edition of The Welder.
Easily access valuable industry resources now with full access to the digital edition of The Tube and Pipe Journal.
Easily access valuable industry resources now with full access to the digital edition of The Fabricator en Español.
- Podcasting
- Podcast:
- The Fabricator Podcast
- Published:
- 04/16/2024
- Running Time:
- 63:29
In this episode of The Fabricator Podcast, Caleb Chamberlain, co-founder and CEO of OSH Cut, discusses his company’s...
- Trending Articles
How to set a press brake backgauge manually
Capturing, recording equipment inspection data for FMEA
Tips for creating sheet metal tubes with perforations
Are two heads better than one in fiber laser cutting?
Hypertherm Associates implements Rapyuta Robotics AMRs in warehouse
- Industry Events
16th Annual Safety Conference
- April 30 - May 1, 2024
- Elgin,
Pipe and Tube Conference
- May 21 - 22, 2024
- Omaha, NE
World-Class Roll Forming Workshop
- June 5 - 6, 2024
- Louisville, KY
Advanced Laser Application Workshop
- June 25 - 27, 2024
- Novi, MI