Job losses in metal fabricating: A sign of hope?

Nobody wants to be thinking about layoffs this time of year. But it"s inevitable given the economic
reports that come out on a regular basis.



Look on the bright side. Things aren"t as bad in the manufacturing sector as they were during the last recession.


If you look at overall job losses in the durable goods sector of manufacturing for this downturn and the one from March 2001 to November 2001—as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research—and then look at job losses in the fabricated metal products sector, you"ll find that metal fabricating operations are doing a little better than manufacturing in general in terms of job losses.

Let"s take a look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

• From March 2001 to November 2001, the durable goods sector shed 799,000 jobs, putting the number of manufacturing jobs at 9,894,000 at the downturn"s end. That"s a 7.5 percent reduction in jobs. Simultaneously, the metal fabricated products segment saw 132,100 jobs evaporate, ending up at 1,603,200 jobs, for a 7.6 percent reduction. The numbers seem to mirror each other.


• From December 2007 to November 2008, the durable goods sector lost 452,000 jobs, which put total jobs in that sector at 8,287,000—a 5.2 percent reduction. During that same time, about 67,000 jobs disappeared in the metal fabricated products segment, a decrease of 4.3 percent, and putting the total number of jobs in that segment at 1,495,700.

Metal fabricating shops seem to be holding their own in terms of keeping people employed. It"s not a huge difference when compared to the durable goods sector, but it"s definitely better.



Despite the dire news shared on the nightly newscast, I continue to see pockets of success out in the market. A fabricator in Virginia is looking to hire more project managers to assist with the fabricating and installation of stainless steel assemblies for the pharmaceutical market, and a job shop in Wisconsin is excited to learn that the defense division of Oshkosh Corp. just won a $250 million contract from the U.S. Army to build combat supply
trucks.



Two anecdotes don"t make for a major trend, but they are a sign of hope. I think the diversification that many shops always had in their customer bases and diversification plans others pursued after the last slowdown in 2001 have put them in a better position to weather this current economic funk.



Overall the job situation won"t improve greatly in early 2009, but the second stimulus packageheavy on infrastructure investmentcould help those in metal fabricating. All hope points to a turnaround by mid-year.



Metal fabricators should be ready for the upturn. I hope the businesses that were able to keep their staffing at normal levels will be ready to take advantage when the economy improves.