Report analyzes worldwide aluminum supply, demand

China dominates the global aluminum industry, accounting for one-third of both world production and world consumption of primary aluminum, according to The Economics of Aluminum, 9th Edition, published by Roskill Information Services, London.

While China is self-sufficient in aluminum metal and approaching self-sufficiency in alumina, dependence on imported bauxite remains high despite rising output. However, power supply issues and high costs of production could result in declining production in the longer term and the possibility that China will become a net importer of primary aluminum.

Russia, Canada, the U.S., Australia, Brazil, Norway, and India are the principal producing countries after China. These countries together account for about three-quarters of world output of primary aluminum.

The Chinese market—almost 30 percent of the world total in 2007 and 2008—expanded by about 27 percent in 2007; that is estimated to have increased by about 8 percent in 2008 and to increase by 3 percent in 2009. In Europe, North America, and Japan, demand will almost certainly fall in 2009 and will either level out or show minimal growth in 2010. The market will start to recover in the second half of 2010, and global growth of 4 to 5 percent, led by China, is likely in 2011. Average growth in the global aluminum market to 2013 will probably be about 2.6 percent annually, resulting in total demand of about 58 million tons.