Our Sites

10-year strategic outlook shows North American auto market headed toward instability

The North American light-vehicle market is on the verge of confronting significant changes that will lead the industry to a very precarious condition, according to the report “A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the North American Automotive Market,” available from Commodity Inside. The once stable and evolving industry is now getting ready for a major overhaul that can simultaneously create threats and opportunities for regional automakers.

President Trump made a number of pledges during his election campaigns related to trade and manufacturing. Some of those were directly related to the automotive sector, including 35 percent tariffs on imported vehicles, bringing jobs back to the U.S., border adjustment tax, and severe consequences for auto investors outside the U.S.

Initially the epicenter of automotive trade war rhetoric was limited to Mexico, though Trump later blamed Germany and Japan for currency undervaluation. Taking the underlying premise of his rhetoric, the question is how much is achievable without disturbing the very fabric of the automotive industry.

The highly global, integrated automotive industry depends on a very convoluted supply chain structure. U.S. carmakers import a portion of auto parts, and many of those parts cross the U.S. borders a few times before ending up in a Mexican or Canadian assembly plant. These actions would defy the government "Buy America" rule in strict terms.

While actions taken by the new administration to support the country’s automotive industry can help increase the capacity utilization domestically and lure further investment announcements, any non-market-driven investment decisions by OEMs can bear significant consequences in the medium to long term. There would likely be some additional increment in the U.S. production in the short term on the back of curbing imports, which may be at the expense of high marginal costs and distortions in the regional automotive supply chain.

Mexico sources most auto parts and automotive steel from the U.S., so any changes in duties on either side can affect the regional supply chain. Therefore, revising NAFTA through imposing tariffs on Mexico would take its toll on the automotive industry, regardless of whether these new tariffs are agreed upon mutually between the members' states.

The report explains how the light-vehicle market might perform over the next 10 years in North America without protectionist measures by the U.S. government, scenarios for regional demand and supply if imports from Mexico are restricted, how the import tax or tariff will affect vehicle prices and capacity utilizations, how OEMs outside North America will respond to changes in the U.S. stance toward Mexico, and how the cost structure in the automotive industry will change in the wake of NAFTA revision.

It also provides detailed analysis on demand, production, and capacity dynamics in the North American light-vehicle market under normal and alternative scenarios; detailed discussions on vehicle trade restrictions and consequences; and analysis of the present and future performance of the North American market.

To learn more about the report, visit commodityinside.com/reports/a-ten-year-strategic-outlook-for-the-north-american-automotive-market/.