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Proposed federal regulations cause headaches for auto industry
New mileage and greenhouse gas emission standards could hit companies simultaneously
- By Stephen Barlas
- October 11, 2021
Upcoming federal changes to corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for passenger cars and light trucks will force manufacturers and suppliers of steel and aluminum to face new realities.
The Biden administration’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has laid out with its September proposed rule six different mass-reduction possibilities, including ditching steel components in favor of those made of carbon fiber. The proposed amended CAFE standards would increase by 8% in model years starting in 2023 over those mandated by the Trump administration. Those increases would be achieved by reducing vehicle mass.
What makes the mass-reduction challenge even dicier is that at the same time, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) wants to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, which are less a matter of mass reduction and more a matter of electrification. Of course, a car/truck fleet dominated by electric vehicles would resolve the miles per gallon imperatives of the CAFE program, but a move to a dominant electric fleet won’t be happening anytime soon because of myriad challenges.
U.S. auto and truck fleets will continue to be dominated by steel/aluminum bodies unless carbon fiber takes over, which would be necessary for automakers to reach what the NHTSA describes as its MR5 (mass reduction, level 5) or MR6 (level 6) mass levels, the lightest in terms of vehicle weight of the six different MR levels.
Auto and truck manufacturers are going to have to make some input substitutions somewhere along the NHTSA’s MR0-MR6 mass range. Here is how the NHTSA describes the continuum:
- Typically, MR0 reflects vehicles with widespread use of mild steel structures and body panels and very little or no use of high-strength steel or aluminum. MR0 reflects materials applied to average vehicles in the model year 2008 timeframe.
- MR1 to MR3 can be achieved with a steel body structure. In going from MR1 to MR3, expect mild steel to be replaced by high-strength steel and then advanced high-strength steels.
- In going from MR3 to MR4, aluminum is required. This starts with using aluminum closure panels, and then to get to MR4, the vehicle’s primary structure needs to be made mostly from aluminum.
- In the vast majority of cases, carbon fiber technology is necessary to reach MR5, perhaps with a mix of some aluminum.
- MR6 really can only be attained in anything resembling a passenger car by making nearly every structural component from carbon fiber. This means the body structure and closure panels like hoods and door skins are made from carbon fiber. There may be some use of aluminum in the suspension.
The NHTSA understands the roadblocks to the use of extensive carbon fiber in autos. The agency states, for example, that direct labor, R&D overhead, manufacturing overhead, and amortized tooling costs likely will be higher for carbon fiber production than current automotive steel production because of the complexities involved in mass production of carbon fiber components.
Complicating potential material substitution scenarios is the relationship between auto mass and auto safety. Drivers run a greater risk of injury in lighter vehicles. The NHTSA admits in cases where fuel economy improvements were achieved through reductions in vehicle size and mass that the smaller, lighter vehicles did not fare as well in crashes when compared to larger, heavier vehicles, on average. The agency said it has to be concerned with “the possibility of related safety trade-offs.”
So where does that leave vehicle manufacturers and companies that make automotive parts out of steel and aluminum? The proposed, amended CAFE standards would increase in stringency by 8% per year starting with the 2023 model year. This would affect both passenger cars and light trucks through model year 2026.
That is going to be a heavy lift for the automotive companies. If the NHTSA proposed rule becomes final, these same companies will have to worry simultaneously about the EPA’s new GHG standards, which would start increasing 10% with model year 2023—that is, if the EPA gets its way.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the auto manufacturers lobbying group, issued a statement: “This unprecedented leap in stringency with virtually no lead time will be a challenge for at least some manufacturers to meet.”
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The Fabricator is North America's leading magazine for the metal forming and fabricating industry. The magazine delivers the news, technical articles, and case histories that enable fabricators to do their jobs more efficiently. The Fabricator has served the industry since 1970.
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