A look to the future

A lot has been written about the current economic funk that has gripped the world. A lot has been speculated about what the economy will do in 2009. A lot is too much for me to take.



I"m not going to tune out and drop off the grid. I want to know what"s happening in the world; I just don"t want it to dominate my thoughts every moment of the day.



Fortunately, the holidays provide some much-needed time to look ahead. It"s quiet time when you don"t have to worry about an e-mail from the office or a call from your children"s school reminding you tomorrow is pajama day. (The latter part of the sentence is true and subject for another blog entry someday.) It"s time to ponder the question, What does the future entail?


That"s a truly important question for a writer. Publishing has changed so rapidly over the last year it"s incredible. The Detroit Free Press and Detroit News announced in December that it was cutting back home delivery of newspapers to three days a week, and similar cost-cutting moves continue today.



I was arguing with my wife only six months ago about the future of newspapers. She contended that people always want something physical in their hands to read. I argued that those types of people are not as numerous—whether due to death or dearth of time—and the basic costs involved in producing and delivering papers—paper, personnel, and trucks—were only going to continue to increase, outstripping the ability to raise new revenues.



Now I"m talking about mass print media endeavors. Niche publications, such as The FABRICATOR, will survive—at least for the time being.



But the one thing I know is that raw material and energy costs will continue to rise. I think that"s a certainty for any industry. A good example is the price of steel; gone are the days of crazy price swings as the industry has consolidated and technology has gotten to the point where producers can control output more intelligently, instead of just flooding the market to keep the blast furnaces going.



And that basic thought creates my foundation of what the future may look like. I think it represents a prime opportunity for metal fabricators who are willing to work their way into unfamiliar territory.



Homes increasingly will have their own means to generate energy. I saw a story a while back about a three-flat building in Chicago that was the first residential structure to have its own wind turbine to generate energy that supplemented the energy provided by local utilities. Check out this link for a picture of installations on a Chicago building.



Of course, these types of installation aren"t the giant wind turbines found on wind farms, but they may represent a hugely untapped market. I know the energy companies are already enthusiastic about helping people explore these technology, as it takes pressure off an already-stressed power grid.



Food will be sourced much closer to metropolitan markets. Doesn"t make too much sense if one doesn"t live in Southern California or Florida, right? Check out this link about the hydroponic farm at the CuisinArt Resort & Spa in Anguilla. I first saw it while watching the Feasting on Waves miniseries on The Food Network last year. The resort resorts to relying on a hydroponic farm to grow its own food because if it didn"t, it would have to import almost everything; the soil on the island is not what you would find along the fertile banks of the Mississippi River. This farm produces tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, eggplants, lettuce, herbs, and even bok choy.



Take a look at all the metal used in those structures covering the garden. That"s a lot of metal. Given the push for locally grown and organic produce, why wouldn"t an entrepreneur set up shop with one of these setups near a larger city? I"m thoroughly convinced that the desire for organic food will grow, especially as people look to cut out all sorts of preservatives and other chemicals from their daily diets. Fresh and clean may translate into the potential for green—money, that is.



(This discussion of locally grown produce reminds me of an afternoon I spent at work back in the mid-1990s doing Web research about the possibility of establishing ponds to cultivate crawfish in the Midwest. But that"s another topic for another blog someday.)



City centers will see population growth. Got a job with a long commute? Stuck in a geographic area with few job opportunities? Large metropolitan areas offer plenty of jobs and usually have some sort of public transportation. There"s also plenty of affordable housing; it just happens to be in less-than-desirable neighborhoods.



Safety and school systems obviously need to be addressed, but doesn"t it make more sense to invest in that than building four-lane highways everywhere under the great blue sky to keep up with suburban sprawl? I think people will see it that way as they yearn to spend more time at home than in their car. If and when that occurs, you"ll see more attention paid to public safety and educational problems that currently plague many urban areas.



The opportunity for metal fabricators here is the use of more structural steel and ornamental iron for renovation projects. I think also you"ll see a reinvestment in public transportation. The latter may occur much sooner thanks to the proposed economic stimulus plan being discussed in Washington, D.C. (That"s a topic for several more blogs in the coming weeks.)



Those are some of my predictions. I"ve got hope for the future. I just hope they come true sooner rather than later.