Decline and rise of the fabricating empire

According to early results of yesterday's "Fabricating Update" survey that asked metal fabricating industry professionals where their companies stand in the recession cycle, 32.5 percent are in serious pain, and 67.5 percent see signs of recovery.

For an industry plagued with declining business, layoffs, and, for the most part, little relief from stimulus spending, there has been a prevailing commitment to hunkering down, battening the hatches, riding out the storm, and, even more important, doing all that can be done not only to survive, but to grow and emerge as strong as possible—much like a phoenix rising from the ashes.

Here are the numbers and comments from across the recession-recovery spectrum.

Of those who responded, 13 percent said their businesses have suffered minimally or not at all from the recession; 37 percent said their companies have bottomed out and business is picking up; and 17.5 percent said they continue to decline, but they expect conditions to improve soon. Fifteen percent reported that they have bottomed out and are barely hanging on; 17 percent reported that business continues to decline with little improvement in sight.

Suffered Minimally or Not At All

Only a few readers who reported that their companies had suffered minimally or not at all from the recession left comments.

A consultant to the fabricating industry said, "We continue to be on overtime and are turning down marginal work."

A reader from a company that manufactures HVAC equipment wrote, "Our upper management refuses to be a part of the recession. With the guidance we have had we have seen an increase in our productivity. Cutting corners where needed and making big improvements in our product designs have helped grow the business."

A subscriber who works for a company that makes air filtration systems said, "Very grateful for having good volume in this type of environment. Our energy-saving equipment has a high interest level right now."

(Notice a trend here? Those involved in creating energy-efficient products appear to be doing relatively well.)

A reader with some foresight wrote, "I started my company two years ago knowing full well the economy was going to peak and I planned for this current downturn."

Where you are and what you do definitely make a difference. A reader from a Brazilian company that makes hardware for doors wrote, "My company has not suffered with the recession, because the Brazilian market for construction shows a growth of 2 percent on the year 2008."

Bottomed Out and Picking Up

A respondent who works for a sheet metal and fabrication equipment supplier said the business had bottomed out and is picking up. "We sold five manual machines and two CNC machines in July. We are on track to do the same in August."

Another who works for a major steel producer said, "Many of our core customers have gone thru much of what the general industry has experienced and curtailed requirements. However, we see a return to levels more in line with sustainability prior to the recession."

A manufacturer/supplier of aluminum welding products wrote, "We are seeing excellent growth under the current market conditions. We feel very encouraged with what the final quarter of this year will bring."

A metal fabricator in Minneapolis said, "We have 34 production employees. In May we had to lay-off four of them. Two weeks ago we called the last one back. We have some concerns that the increase in business is seasonal; however we are certainly up from where we were six months ago."

Continues to Decline, but Expects Conditions to Improve Soon

Most of the comments from those whose businesses continue to decline but conditions are expected to improve soon reflect cautious optimism.

A reader from a company that makes fire protection systems wrote, "Right now there are more desperate companies bidding on fewer projects. More construction projects would be a big help, but, where are they?" (Brazil?)

Another said, "As a metal service center we are seeing some improvement, but nothing drastic. And nothing close to warranting the steep increases being put out by the mills."

A Midwestern fabricator echoed the concern about material price increases. "Our business still fluctuates, but our big concern now is the increases we are seeing in steel."

A subscriber from a 61-year-old metal fabricating shop located in Colorado is very cautious in his expectations that conditions will improve soon. "I think we are seeing a false bottom. This will surprise many seasoned business owners, but what we are experiencing is the next bubble created by the fed. A stock bubble. Don't forget the commercial property financials are still expected to take a big hit this fall and winter."

Continues to Decline with Little Improvement in Sight

Among those who responded that their businesses continue to decline with little improvement in sight was a reader from an unidentified company who said, "Obamacare, social-engineered stimulus that hasn't and will not work, huge debt, forsaking one industry while saving another, corrupt politicians without a clue, corrupt business practices, moral bankruptcy, uncontrolled spending ... I'd say we will decline to new depths..It may be a long time before there is any recovery."

A fabricator of custom metal products said, "We are hoping for a rebound later in this quarter (Oct.) or in the 4th quarter."

Several metal artists weighed in. One said, "We are fine art fabricators so we will continue to struggle until most others recover."

Even with continued declines, some industry professionals are managing to keep their senses of humor. An employee of a major metal-producing company said, "My crystal ball was repossessed, so I was unable to tell if 'conditions to improve soon.' On the other hand, my new predictor says 'unclear, ask again later.'"

Bottomed Out and Barely Hanging On

Among those readers who shared their thoughts about being at the bottom and barely hanging was one from a company that makes commercial laundry equipment. This reader reported, "Company-wide, work hours have been cut from 40 to 36 since January 1."

An equipment supplier said, "I suspect that until factory utilization approaches 75 percent, we will see little in the way of new machine orders unless equipment is failing."

A structural steel fabricator said, "We have picked up some work, but the backlog is virtually non-existent. It will be job-to-job for a while."

A reader from a logistics company said, "We are 100 percent trucking and transportation work. The U.S. government and EPA have destroyed the trucking industry in this country. Job losses will continue."

Even those barely hanging on are seeing some improvement. A reader from a company involved in the offshore and marine industry wrote, "We have seen more requests for quotes in the last 30 days than the last six months. I am down 16 men for lack of work, and what [we have, we've had to] bid low to get."

The lead-in story to the "Fabricating Update" survey included comments from a fabricator who said his company was having a difficult time discerning real RFQs from engineers who are just fishing." Regarding this observation, a survey respondent wrote, "As an engineer fishing. I personally have to comment that the intention is not to fish but to make a catch; problem is further up the line—we are running out of bait and the season's ending. Any information gained, if not acted upon immediately, should at least give sources where to look for business when times get better. Keep a list of names, and give all the info they want; most engineers aren´t intentionally wasting their time fishing."

There you have it & real numbers and thoughts from those in the metal fabricating trenches. To humor the reader whose crystal ball was repossessed, we will ask again later. When we do, I hope you can't hear us for the fat lady loudly humming Stravinsky's "Firebird Suite."

Follow Vicki Bell, fabcomlady, on Twitter.