Economic outlook for Q3 forecasts 3.6 percent growth in 2017 equipment, software investment

Investment in equipment and software is expected to grow 3.6 percent in 2017, according to the Q3 update to the 2017 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, Washington, D.C. The foundation revised its 2017 equipment and software investment growth forecast up from 2.8 percent growth expected in its Q2 update to the 2017 Economic Outlook released in April. The report predicts that equipment and software investment should continue to bounce back from a lackluster 2016 after a solid start in the first quarter of 2017, driven by overall improvements in business confidence and a more positive outlook for the industrial sector.

The 2017 report, which is focused on the $1 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment and places them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate. It is updated quarterly.

Ralph Petta, president of the foundation and president/CEO of the association, said, “Stronger-than-expected first-quarter capital investment points to a more robust forecast for the year. This is borne out not only by industry performance metrics, but also by anecdotal reports from leasing and finance executives in a variety of key industry sectors. Headwinds emanating from Washington, D.C., may alter this trajectory as the summer wears on, but for now, it appears that 2017 growth should eclipse that in 2016."

Equipment and software investment experienced a bright Q1 2017, growing at an annualized rate of 7.4 percent, its strongest pace in two years. Stabilized oil prices, improved business confidence, and credit market stability should lead to solid investment growth of 3.6 percent in 2017, a significant improvement over 2016.

U.S. economic growth in the second half of 2017 is likely to yield a notable improvement on Q1 growth of just 1.4 percent because of a rebound in consumer spending, solidly positive business investment, and a strengthening global economy. Overall, the U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.4 percent in 2017—a slight downgrade from 2.5 percent in the foundation’s Q2 forecast but still a significant improvement over 1.6 percent growth in 2016.

Though 2017 is shaping up to be a better year for U.S. economic growth than 2016, headwinds to watch include U.S. trade policy uncertainty and budget battles. Continued political gridlock also makes it increasingly unlikely that Congress will agree on major pro-growth legislation such as tax cuts or infrastructure spending in 2017.