Metal formers predict decline in economic activity

In a significant decline in sentiment from last month, metal forming companies anticipate a downturn in business conditions in the coming months, according to the September 2023 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Prepared monthly, PMA’s report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing, sampling 98 metal forming companies in the U.S. and Canada.

The September report shows that 50% of metal forming companies expect a decrease in general economic activity in the next three months, a significant change from 29% in August. Forty-two percent predict no change in activity (compared to 53% in August), and only 8% forecast an increase in activity (from 18% last month).

Metal formers also anticipate a decline in incoming orders, with 47% of survey respondents expecting a decrease in orders during the next three months (up significantly from 28% in August), 34% predicting no change (compared to 46% last month), and 19% forecasting an increase in orders (compared to 26% in August).

However, current average daily shipping levels improved somewhat in September, with 23% of responding companies reporting an increase in shipping levels (compared to 16% in August), 42% reporting no change (the same percentage as last month), and 35% reporting a decrease in shipping levels (down from 42% in August).

“I am optimistic about the resiliency of the metal forming industry,” said PMA President David Klotz. “At the recently completed FABTECH 2023 show in Chicago, I saw firsthand the level of business activity among the 40,000 manufacturers in attendance, a 26% increase from the previous show.”

Only 6% of metal forming companies reported an increase in lead times in September, compared to 11% in August. Eight percent of companies had a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff in August (decreasing from 9% in August), while 40% of companies are currently expanding their workforce (compared to 46% last month).